This report shows an evaluation of ensemble forecasts created from forecasts for Covid-19 case and death numbers in 32 European countries submitted to the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub, comparing forecasts from up to 4 weeks ago to the data available today.

Forecast visualisation

Forecasts of cases/deaths per week per 100,000. The date of the tab marks the date on which a forecast was made.

2021-04-05

Cases

Deaths

2021-03-29

Cases

Deaths

2021-03-22

Cases

Deaths

2021-03-15

Cases

Deaths

2021-03-08

Cases

Deaths

Forecast calibration

Shown below are PIT histograms for the most recent ensemble forecasts. These show the proportion of true values within each predict quantile (width: 0.2).